论文标题
德国低速功率事件的频率和持续时间
Frequency and duration of low-wind-power events in Germany
论文作者
论文摘要
在向可再生能源系统的过渡中，低速功率事件的发生会受到越来越多的关注。我们根据40年的重新分析数据和开放软件分析了德国陆上风能的此类事件的频率和持续时间。我们发现，冬季的低速功率事件比夏季的频率少，但是在几个月之间，最大持续时间的分布更加均匀。尽管短期事件经常出现，但很长的事件要稀有得多。每年，连续五天约五天，平均风能系数低于10％，每十年都有近八天的时间。如果仅考虑冬季，这些持续时间会减少。数据中最长的事件持续将近十天。我们得出的结论是，公众对冬季低速事件事件的担忧可能被高估了，但建议建模研究考虑多个天气年份，以正确地解释此类事件。
In the transition to a renewable energy system, the occurrence of low-wind-power events receives increasing attention. We analyze the frequency and duration of such events for onshore wind power in Germany, based on 40 years of reanalysis data and open software. We find that low-wind-power events are less frequent in winter than in summer, but the maximum duration is distributed more evenly between months. While short events are frequent, very long events are much rarer. Every year, a period of around five consecutive days with an average wind capacity factor below 10% occurs, and every ten years a respective period of nearly eight days. These durations decrease if only winter months are considered. The longest event in the data lasts nearly ten days. We conclude that public concerns about low-wind-power events in winter may be overrated, but recommend that modeling studies consider multiple weather years to properly account for such events.
