论文标题
2019年冠状病毒爆发期间来自中国的飞行限制
Flight restrictions from China during the COVID-2019 Coronavirus outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
此简短说明提供了2019年10月至2020年3月在历史数据的期间从中国到达世界机场的乘客人数的估计。从这个基线中，我们考虑了自2019年1月23日的2019年1月23日冠状病毒爆发后的临时禁令，这些乘客人数预计减少了某些路线的临时禁令。结果表明，2020年1月至3月的乘客人数减少了-2.5％。该计算仅考虑途径的完整封闭（不仅是直接飞行），而不考虑仍然有效直接和间接连接的乘客人数减少。在撰写本文的那一刻，有了这样的部分信息，量化公民运输和旅游业的经济损失为时过早。本说明旨在提供一个扩展到所有原产国的基线，并随着最新数据的可用性提供更新。
This short note provides estimates of the number of passengers that travel from China to all world airports in the period October 2019 - March 2020 on the basis of historical data. From this baseline we subtract the expected reduction in the number of passengers taking into account the temporary ban of some routes which was put in place since 23 January 2020 following the COVID-2019 Coronavirus outbreak. The results indicate a reduction of the number of passengers in the period January - March 2020 of -2.5%. This calculation considers only the complete closure of routes (not just direct flights) and not the reduction in the number of passengers on still active direct and indirect connections. At the moment of writing, with such partial information it is premature to quantify economic losses on the civil air transport and tourism industry. This note is meant to provide a baseline that be extended to all countries of origin and updated as more recent data will become available.
