论文标题

吟游诗人:一种用于贝叶斯网络的群体启发的结构化技术来支持分析推理

BARD: A structured technique for group elicitation of Bayesian networks to support analytic reasoning

论文作者

Nicholson, Ann E., Korb, Kevin B., Nyberg, Erik P., Wybrow, Michael, Zukerman, Ingrid, Mascaro, Steven, Thakur, Shreshth, Alvandi, Abraham Oshni, Riley, Jeff, Pearson, Ross, Morris, Shane, Herrmann, Matthieu, Azad, A. K. M., Bolger, Fergus, Hahn, Ulrike, Lagnado, David

论文摘要

在许多复杂的现实情况下,解决问题和决策需要有效的因果关系和不确定性。但是,在这些情况下,人类推理容易发生混乱和错误。贝叶斯网络(BNS)是一种人工智能技术,该技术对不确定情况进行建模,支持概率和因果推理和决策。但是,迄今为止,BN方法和软件需要进行大量的前期培训,对建筑过程没有太多指导,并且不支持协作构建BN。 BARD (Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi) is both a methodology and an expert system that utilises (1) BNs as the underlying structured representations for better argument analysis, (2) a multi-user web-based software platform and Delphi-style social processes to assist with collaboration, and (3) short, high-quality e-courses on demand, a highly structured process to guide BN construction, and a variety of helpful tools to assist in building and reasoning with BNS,包括一种自动解释工具,可帮助有效的报告写作。结果是一个端到端的在线平台,并进行了相关的在线培训,对于没有国际值国阵专业知识的小组来理解和分析问题,建立其基本概率因果关系结构的模型,通过因果模型验证和理性,并使用它来制作书面分析报告。最初的实验结果表明,吟游诗人有助于解决问题,推理和协作。

In many complex, real-world situations, problem solving and decision making require effective reasoning about causation and uncertainty. However, human reasoning in these cases is prone to confusion and error. Bayesian networks (BNs) are an artificial intelligence technology that models uncertain situations, supporting probabilistic and causal reasoning and decision making. However, to date, BN methodologies and software require significant upfront training, do not provide much guidance on the model building process, and do not support collaboratively building BNs. BARD (Bayesian ARgumentation via Delphi) is both a methodology and an expert system that utilises (1) BNs as the underlying structured representations for better argument analysis, (2) a multi-user web-based software platform and Delphi-style social processes to assist with collaboration, and (3) short, high-quality e-courses on demand, a highly structured process to guide BN construction, and a variety of helpful tools to assist in building and reasoning with BNs, including an automated explanation tool to assist effective report writing. The result is an end-to-end online platform, with associated online training, for groups without prior BN expertise to understand and analyse a problem, build a model of its underlying probabilistic causal structure, validate and reason with the causal model, and use it to produce a written analytic report. Initial experimental results demonstrate that BARD aids in problem solving, reasoning and collaboration.

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