论文标题
2019年智利社会动荡的解剖结构
The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest
论文作者
论文摘要
我们通过考虑全球传染性动态的流行病样模型的角度分析了2019年智利社会动荡情节，包括一系列事件。我们将参数调整为智利社会动荡汇总的公共数据，可从副秘书人权秘书，并观察到，暴力事件的数量遵循自六十年代以来其他国家 /地区各个国家中已经观察到的明确定义的模式。尽管流行性模型显示出一个达到峰值的单一事件，随后是指数衰减，但我们添加了标准的扰动方案，该方案可能会产生丰富的时间行为，如2019年智利社交动荡中所观察到的那样。尽管我们只能访问汇总数据，但我们仍然能够很好地适应模型，从而为社会动荡动态提供有趣的见解。
We analyze the 2019 Chilean social unrest episode, consisting of a sequence of events, through the lens of an epidemic-like model that considers global contagious dynamics. We adjust the parameters to the Chilean social unrest aggregated public data available from the Undersecretary of Human Rights, and observe that the number of violent events follows a well-defined pattern already observed in various public disorder episodes in other countries since the sixties. Although the epidemic-like models display a single event that reaches a peak followed by an exponential decay, we add standard perturbation schemes that may produce a rich temporal behavior as observed in the 2019 Chilean social turmoil. Although we only have access to aggregated data, we are still able to fit it to our model quite well, providing interesting insights on social unrest dynamics.
