论文标题
多元分布和级别集的分数
Scores for Multivariate Distributions and Level Sets
论文作者
论文摘要
多种应用需要对多元概率分布进行预测。评分规则可以评估预测准确性,并可以比较预测方法。我们为多元分布的评分规则提出了一个理论框架,该框架涵盖了现有的二次得分和多元连续排名概率得分。我们演示了如何使用该框架来生成新的评分规则。在某些多元上下文中,它是对所需级别集的预测,例如用于异常检测的密度设置或累积分布的水平集作为衡量风险的度量。这激发了考虑此类水平集的评分功能的考虑。对于单变量分布,良好的表明,连续排名的概率得分可以表示为分数分数不可或缺的积分。我们表明,以类似的方式,可以分解多元分布的评分规则以获得级别集的评分功能。使用此功能,我们为不同类型的级别集提供了评分功能,包括密度级别集和累积分布的级别集。为了计算分数,我们提出了一种简单的数值算法。我们进行了一项模拟研究来支持我们的建议,并使用真实数据来说明对组合和COVAR估计的有用性。
Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadratic score and multivariate continuous ranked probability score. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to generate new scoring rules. In some multivariate contexts, it is a forecast of a level set that is needed, such as a density level set for anomaly detection or the level set of the cumulative distribution as a measure of risk. This motivates consideration of scoring functions for such level sets. For univariate distributions, it is well-established that the continuous ranked probability score can be expressed as the integral over a quantile score. We show that, in a similar way, scoring rules for multivariate distributions can be decomposed to obtain scoring functions for level sets. Using this, we present scoring functions for different types of level set, including density level sets and level sets for cumulative distributions. To compute the scores, we propose a simple numerical algorithm. We perform a simulation study to support our proposals, and we use real data to illustrate usefulness for forecast combining and CoVaR estimation.