论文标题
世界贸易网络中的危机传染
Crisis contagion in the world trade network
论文作者
论文摘要
我们根据从联合国COMTRADE数据库获得的世界贸易网络的Google Matrix分析提供了一个全球危机传染的模型。破产国家的比例表现出\ textit {on-off}的相变，该转变由破产阈值$κ$与国家的贸易余额有关。对于$κ>κ_c$，触发物的限制为少于10％的国家，而对于$κ<κ_c$，危机是全球性的，大约90 \％的国家遭受破产。我们在传染过程中衡量危机的总成本。除了提供传染性方案外，我们的模型还允许探测国家之间的结构交易依赖性。对于从过去二十年的世界贸易交流中提取的不同网络，全球危机来自西方世界。特别是，全球危机的根源是系统的旧大陆和美洲（主要是美国和墨西哥）。除了澳大利亚的经济外，亚洲国家，例如中国，印度，印度尼西亚，马来西亚和泰国的经济，在传染期间最后一次倒塌。而且，四个金砖四国是世界贸易危机最强大的国家之一。
We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an \textit{on-off} phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold $κ$ related to the trade balance of the countries. For $κ>κ_c$, the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10\% of the countries, whereas, for $κ<κ_c$, the crisis is global with about 90\% of the countries going to bankruptcy. We measure the total cost of the crisis during the contagion process. In addition to providing contagion scenarios, our model allows to probe the structural trading dependencies between countries. For different networks extracted from the world trade exchanges of the last two decades, the global crisis comes from the Western world. In particular, the source of the global crisis is systematically the Old Continent and The Americas (mainly US and Mexico). Besides the economy of Australia, those of Asian countries, such as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are the last to fall during the contagion. Also, the four BRIC are among the most robust countries to the world trade crisis.
