论文标题
贝叶斯统计的孔
Holes in Bayesian Statistics
论文作者
论文摘要
每个哲学都有洞,指出这些问题是哲学的支持者的责任。 Here are a few holes in Bayesian data analysis: (1) the usual rules of conditional probability fail in the quantum realm, (2) flat or weak priors lead to terrible inferences about things we care about, (3) subjective priors are incoherent, (4) Bayesian decision picks the wrong model, (5) Bayes factors fail in the presence of flat or weak priors, (6) for Cantorian reasons we need to check our models, but this破坏贝叶斯推论的连贯性。贝叶斯统计的一些问题是由于人们试图做他们不应该尝试做的事情而引起的,但是其他漏洞并不容易修补。特别是,避免平坦,虚弱或常规的先验可能是一个好主意,但是如果遵循的话,这种建议将与绝大多数贝叶斯实践抗衡,并要求我们面对贝叶斯推论的基本不一致。这并不意味着我们认为贝叶斯推论是一个坏主意,但这确实意味着贝叶斯逻辑与贝叶斯工作流之间存在张力,我们认为只能通过将贝叶斯逻辑作为一种工具来解决,这是一种揭示我们模型假设中不可避免的Misfits和Incoherence的方式,而不是本身的结局。
Every philosophy has holes, and it is the responsibility of proponents of a philosophy to point out these problems. Here are a few holes in Bayesian data analysis: (1) the usual rules of conditional probability fail in the quantum realm, (2) flat or weak priors lead to terrible inferences about things we care about, (3) subjective priors are incoherent, (4) Bayesian decision picks the wrong model, (5) Bayes factors fail in the presence of flat or weak priors, (6) for Cantorian reasons we need to check our models, but this destroys the coherence of Bayesian inference. Some of the problems of Bayesian statistics arise from people trying to do things they shouldn't be trying to do, but other holes are not so easily patched. In particular, it may be a good idea to avoid flat, weak, or conventional priors, but such advice, if followed, would go against the vast majority of Bayesian practice and requires us to confront the fundamental incoherence of Bayesian inference. This does not mean that we think Bayesian inference is a bad idea, but it does mean that there is a tension between Bayesian logic and Bayesian workflow which we believe can only be resolved by considering Bayesian logic as a tool, a way of revealing inevitable misfits and incoherences in our model assumptions, rather than as an end in itself.