论文标题
天气条件对肥料应用的影响：空间动态面板数据分析
The Effect of Weather Conditions on Fertilizer Applications: A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
鉴于农业对天气条件的极端依赖性，本文通过考虑庞大的数据集和灵活的时空模型规范来分析气候变化对这一经济行业的影响。特别是，我们研究了N-肥料应用对异常天气条件的响应，同时考虑了其他相关的控制变量。数据集由21年（1993-2013）的网格数据组成，而方法论策略则利用空间动态面板数据（SDPD）模型，该模型既说明了空间和时间固定效果，否则处理了空间和时间依赖。时间不变的短期和长期效应以及时间变化的边际效应也得到了正确的定义，这对GDP和天气条件对肥料利用的影响揭示了有趣的结果。该分析考虑了四个宏观区域 - 欧洲，南美，东南亚和非洲 - 允许在不同的社会经济社会之间进行比较。除了找到空间（以知识溢出效应的形式）和时间依赖性以及对施肥环境曲线的存在的良好支持外，该论文还显示了N-有效性对每个选定区域偏离正常天气条件的偏差的特殊响应，呼吁对每个选定的水分，呼吁采用AD HOC政策政策介入。
Given the extreme dependence of agriculture on weather conditions, this paper analyses the effect of climatic variations on this economic sector, by considering both a huge dataset and a flexible spatio-temporal model specification. In particular, we study the response of N-fertilizer application to abnormal weather conditions, while accounting for other relevant control variables. The dataset consists of gridded data spanning over 21 years (1993-2013), while the methodological strategy makes use of a spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model that accounts for both space and time fixed effects, besides dealing with both space and time dependences. Time-invariant short and long term effects, as well as time-varying marginal effects are also properly defined, revealing interesting results on the impact of both GDP and weather conditions on fertilizer utilizations. The analysis considers four macro-regions -- Europe, South America, South-East Asia and Africa -- to allow for comparisons among different socio-economic societies. In addition to finding both spatial (in the form of knowledge spillover effects) and temporal dependences as well as a good support for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve for fertilizer application, the paper shows peculiar responses of N-fertilization to deviations from normal weather conditions of moisture for each selected region, calling for ad hoc policy interventions.
