论文标题
滑过网络:数据科学方法可以帮助目标清洁烹饪政策干预吗?
Slipping through the net: can data science approaches help target clean cooking policy interventions?
论文作者
论文摘要
印度对固体生物量烹饪燃料的依赖对家庭产生负面的健康和社会经济后果,但是旨在促进LPG烹饪吸收的政策并不总是有效地促进持续过渡到预期受益人之间的清洁烹饪。本文采用了两步方法,结合了IHDS面板数据集的预测性和描述性分析,以识别在2004/5到2011/12之间切换炉灶的不同家庭组。基于树的集合机学习预测分析确定了从生物质到非生物量炉灶开关的关键决定因素。描述性聚类分析用于识别遵循不同过渡途径的炉灶开关家庭组。这项研究有三个关键发现:首先,炉子开关的非收入决定因素对炉灶开关没有线性效应,特别是使用时间和设备所有权的变量,这些变量为家庭能源实践提供了代理;其次,特定于位置的因素,包括区域,基础设施可用性和居住质量是关键决定因素,因此必须量身定制政策以考虑到局部变化;第三,干净的烹饪干预措施必须采取一系列措施,以应对不同能量过渡途径的家庭面临的障碍。
Reliance on solid biomass cooking fuels in India has negative health and socio-economic consequences for households, yet policies aimed at promoting uptake of LPG for cooking have not always been effective at promoting sustained transition to cleaner cooking amongst intended beneficiaries. This paper uses a two step approach combining predictive and descriptive analyses of the IHDS panel dataset to identify different groups of households that switched stove between 2004/5 and 2011/12. A tree-based ensemble machine learning predictive analysis identifies key determinants of a switch from biomass to non-biomass stoves. A descriptive clustering analysis is used to identify groups of stove-switching households that follow different transition pathways. There are three key findings of this study: Firstly non-income determinants of stove switching do not have a linear effect on stove switching, in particular variables on time of use and appliance ownership which offer a proxy for household energy practices; secondly location specific factors including region, infrastructure availability, and dwelling quality are found to be key determinants and as a result policies must be tailored to take into account local variations; thirdly clean cooking interventions must enact a range of measures to address the barriers faced by households on different energy transition pathways.