论文标题
太阳间歇性对未来光伏可靠性的影响
Impacts of Solar Intermittency on Future Photovoltaic Reliability
论文作者
论文摘要
随着光伏能力在全球范围内迅速扩展，必须在未来的气候场景下评估其承诺。尽管大量的研究专门用于平均太阳辐射的趋势，但对其间歇性特征的关注较少，这是与与气候变异性有关的不确定性加重时的关键挑战。使用卫星数据和气候模型输出，我们在这里表征太阳辐射间歇性，以评估未来的光伏可靠性。我们发现，未来的电源与平均太阳辐射的长期趋势之间的关系是高度非线性的，因此使功率可靠性更敏感，而在无法进行的区域中，无法进行最高的区域。我们的结果表明，在评估气候变化对光伏的影响时，可靠性分析如何同时考虑太阳能输入的平均值和间歇性。
As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends of mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, here we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term trends of mean solar radiation is highly nonlinear, thus making power reliability more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in regions where insolation is the highest. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics.
