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In this paper, we aim to develop a predictive model for solar radial $p$-mode line profiles in the velocity spectrum. Unlike the approach favoured by prior studies, this model is not described by free parameters and we do not use fitting procedures to match the observations. Instead, we use an analytical turbulence model coupled with constraints extracted from a 3D hydrodynamic simulation of the solar atmosphere. We then compare the resulting asymmetries with their observationally derived counterpart. We find that stochastic excitation localised beneath the mode upper turning point generates negative asymmetry for $ν< ν_\text{max}$ and positive asymmetry for $ν> ν_\text{max}$. On the other hand, stochastic excitation localised above this limit generates negative asymmetry throughout the $p$-mode spectrum. As a result of the spatial extent of the source of excitation, both cases play a role in the total observed asymmetries. By taking this spatial extent into account and using a realistic description of the spectrum of turbulent kinetic energy, both a qualitative and quantitative agreement can be found with solar observations perfoemed by the GONG network. We also find that the impact of the correlation between acoustic noise and oscillation is negligible for mode asymmetry in the velocity spectrum.