论文标题
通过预测比赛统计数据来预测足球比赛
Forecasting football matches by predicting match statistics
论文作者
论文摘要
本文认为使用观察到的和预测的匹配统计数据是对足球比赛结果预测的投入。结果表明，如果有可能事先知道比赛统计数据，则可以对比赛结果进行高度信息的预测。尽管实际上，匹配统计在比赛之前从未获得，但这导致了简单的理念。如果可以预测匹配统计数据，并且这些预测足够准确，则可以根据信息匹配的预测进行得出。结果表明，在最近的论文中引入的广义攻击性能（GAP）评级提供了一种适当的方法来预测事先预测匹配统计数据，并且它们足够有用，可以提供超出赔率反映出的信息。当预测与两种博彩策略相结合时，可以证明长期且强大的赌博利润。
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of the match outcome could be made. Whilst, in practice, match statistics are never available prior to the match, this leads to a simple philosophy. If match statistics can be predicted pre-match, and if those predictions are accurate enough, it follows that informative match forecasts can be made. It is shown that Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings, introduced in a recent paper, provide a suitable methodology for predicting match statistics in advance and that they are informative enough to provide information beyond that reflected in the odds. A long term and robust gambling profit is demonstrated when the forecasts are combined with two betting strategies.
