论文标题
用于多元时间序列预测的时间张量转换网络
Temporal Tensor Transformation Network for Multivariate Time Series Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
多元时间序列预测在各种领域中都有应用,被认为是一项非常具有挑战性的任务,尤其是当变量具有相关性并显示出复杂的时间模式(例如季节性和趋势)时。许多现有的方法都有强大的统计假设,具有高维度的数值问题,手动特征工程工作和可扩展性。在这项工作中,我们介绍了一种新颖的深度学习体系结构,称为时间张量转换网络,该网络将原始的多元时间序列转换为较高的张量,通过拟议的时间片段堆栈转换。这产生了原始多变量时间序列的新表示,这使得卷积内核能够从相对较大的时间区域提取复杂和非线性特征以及可变的交互信号。实验结果表明,时间张量转换网络在各种任务上的基于窗口的预测上优于几种最新方法。所提出的架构还通过广泛的灵敏度分析表明了强大的预测性能。
Multivariate time series prediction has applications in a wide variety of domains and is considered to be a very challenging task, especially when the variables have correlations and exhibit complex temporal patterns, such as seasonality and trend. Many existing methods suffer from strong statistical assumptions, numerical issues with high dimensionality, manual feature engineering efforts, and scalability. In this work, we present a novel deep learning architecture, known as Temporal Tensor Transformation Network, which transforms the original multivariate time series into a higher order of tensor through the proposed Temporal-Slicing Stack Transformation. This yields a new representation of the original multivariate time series, which enables the convolution kernel to extract complex and non-linear features as well as variable interactional signals from a relatively large temporal region. Experimental results show that Temporal Tensor Transformation Network outperforms several state-of-the-art methods on window-based predictions across various tasks. The proposed architecture also demonstrates robust prediction performance through an extensive sensitivity analysis.